From LATimes.com:
USC forward Marcus Johnson has decided to turn pro, Trojans basketball Coach Tim Floyd said Monday.
Johnson, a 6-foot-7 transfer from Connecticut, averaged 3.6 points in 16 games last season.
He is the fourth USC player to leave school early and turn pro since the season ended. Junior forward Taj Gibson, junior guard Daniel Hackett and freshman forward DeMar DeRozan have also declared for the NBA draft.
Marcus, remember Davon Jefferson?
From ESPN.com:
"I am so thankful for the fans and alumni at USC and around the nation that have been so supportive of me and my teammates throughout the season," Mayo said in a statement. "I'd like to express my appreciation to my coaches and teammates for their support in one of the most important decisions I've ever made."
It was a great pleasure to watch O.J. as a Trojan. O.J. was actually one of the reasons why I started this blog. I followed him throughout much his HS career and was just stunned when he announced he'd come to SC to play basketball. It was probably the most exciting recruiting event I'd experienced as a Trojan basketball fan. I knew I had to start a blog and follow his career.
So with that in mind, I followed O.J. roller-coaster ride of a career in which I defended O.J. going into SC, when most of the media was slagging him as an uncontrollable delinquent, and also going out, when the media/fans again were talking about his unfulfilled promises. From day one, and people like ParagonSC over at ConquestChronicles.com can attest to this, I've had faith that O.J. would come in and not only be a great player on the court, but also walk out a great ambassador of the university. I think he accomplished that and more. It's hard to measure O.J.'s direct impact on the SC basketball program, but there has never been as much interest from elite recruits on the program as there is now; I believe O.J. played a significant role in that reality.
I wish nothing but the best for O.J. in the league. I've mentioned numerous times before that I think his game is suited more for the NBA and as a result will help him flourish as a player. I'm not sure if he'll ever become an elite player in the NBA, but I have no doubt that he will do our program proud. So if you ever come across this O.J., just want to say thanks for the great memories.
Still hard to say whether O.J. will enter the draft because it seems like he's factoring in his college experience heavily into the decision. As for his draft stock, back when Chad Ford had O.J. at #9 on his draft board, I ranted and said he was a top 6 lock. I also mentioned in the same post that O.J. is a better prospect than Eric Gordon, due to his polished mid-range game, and Jerryd Bayless, due to his higher ceiling. Well, guess where Chad Ford has O.J. now? Yup, he has him at #4 with Bayless dropping to #6 and Gordon dropping even further to #8; both players were ranked higher than O.J. at the time I posted my prediction. The same goes for NBADraft.net.
So where's my cookie?
With the tournament/season over, there is no doubt that Derrick Rose has seen his stock rise more than anyone. Yes, if his stock rises it'll only be one place from #2 to #1, but before the tournament everyone had Michael Beasley as the #1 lock; now it seems like Rose might have a solid shot at going #1 overall. I've seen a lot of comparisons made of Rose, some on-point and others completely off-point, but he reminds me of Stephon Marbury with a more pure point guard mind and minus the character issues. They both have amazing first steps, elite leaping ability, ability to take over games single-handedly, and that innate understanding of using angles to create space for teammates. The kid is going to be a franchise player real soon.
Taj and Davon
As for Taj and Davon, my thoughts haven't really changed about their prospects. I think Taj would be dumb to not declare for the draft and at least familiarize himself with the process because he would commit draft suicide by staying his senior year due to his age. Might as well use that free declare pass while you have it. This year's draft looks a little too strong for him to declare since players like Darrell Arthur, Donte Greene, Joey Dorsey, J.J. Hickson, etc. could possibly push him into the mid-to-late 2nd round. Taj needs to come back and understand that he will never be a back-to-the-basket player and start developing his jumper from beyond the baseline. He wasted nearly the entire OOC conference schedule trying to play with his back to the basket and really hurt his progression during the season; I never fully bought the injured ankle causing him to struggle argument. He needs to accept his role as a rebounding/defensive specialist and be even more efficient offensively by mixing up outside mid-range jumpers with quick moves to the basket and supplementing them with a lot of fakes and up-and-under moves. Taj will never be physically dominating due to his natural skinny frame and therefore he needs to leverage his wingspan and quickness. Less is more for Taj.
Finally, I've made it clear before that Davon has absolutely no business being in this year's draft. When players like J.R. Giddens are questionable to be early 2nd round locks, Davon is either going to barely be drafted or not drafted at all. He's the perfect example of a player needing another year in college. Davon's potential is not high enough to warrant a major gamble from a team and athletic 3's are a dime a dozen. Davon needs to polish up his game overall and improve defensively before entering the draft. The fact is, he'd get eaten up by most 3's in the league right now. Hopefully he makes the right move and comes back for his sophomore season.
From WeAreSC.com:
Sam Barry Award MVP
O.J. Mayo (20.7 ppg, 4.5 rpg, 40.9 3-pt%, 684 points, 88 three-pointers)
Joe Barbato Award Top FT Percentage
Daniel Hackett (82.3 percent, 8.6 ppg, 3.8 rpg, 3.2 apg)
Dr. James Zumberge Award Top GPA
Keith Wilkinson (3.0, Communications, Journalism & Related Studies)John Rudometkin Award 110% Effort
Taj Gibson (58.0 FG%, 10.8 ppg, 7.8 rpg, 88 blocks)Tom Kimmel Award Top 6th Man
Angelo JohnsonErnie Holbrook Award Most Inspirational
Daniel Hackett (8.6 ppg, 94 assists, 82.3 FT %, 34 steals)Coaches Award
Dwight Lewis (10.8 ppg, 2.4 rpg, 31 3-pointers, 24 steals)Top Rebounder Award
Taj Gibson (7.8 rpg, 259 total)
Reportedly Taj announced he would be coming back next season. Also hear that word got out regarding Davon also coming back. Take those reports with a BIG grain of salt, especially the latter one. Congrats to the winners.
From The Wages of Wins Blog:
Gordon played 29 games before facing Penn State on Sunday. When we look at Gordon across these games, we do see that his woeful shooting on Sunday was an anomaly. Gordon’s adjusted field goal percentage is 54.2%, which is quite good.
Let me put Gordon’s shooting in perspective. The other top shooting guard who is expected to be available in the NBA draft is O.J. Mayo of USC. Mayo’s adjusted field goal percentage is 53.0%, and again, that’s quite good. Despite this performance, though, here is how Chad Ford describes Mayo at ESPN.com.
It’s clear Mayo’s going to be a great NBA scorer … but will he give a team anything else?
When we compare Gordon and Mayo we see that the latter produces more - on a per-minute basis - rebounds, assists, and steals. Mayo also commits fewer turnovers. In sum, if we are concerned that Mayo isn’t going to give anything beyond scoring, shouldn’t we have the same concern about Gordon? And yet, in the mock drafts I have seen, Gordon is consistently rated as the better prospect (and Ford describes Gordon as a “do-it-all combo guard that is already lighting up the box score”)
The author goes on to use the "Win Score" to evaluate both prospects and concludes that both are surprisingly "below average". I'm not sure what to make of the "Win Score" so I'm not going to try and comment on it, but going off of the quoted paragraph, isn't it surprising to see Chad Ford's comments running in near contrast to what actually transpired on the court?
I've already ranted about Chad Ford's analysis of O.J. once, but I'm starting to think it would be more effective to just document where these "experts" were ranking O.J. at the end of the season and just reveal it all on draft day. Chad Ford currently has O.J. at #10 on his big board; anyone with a basketball IQ above 80 will tell you that is way too low. I'd be willing to admit that there is a possibility my previous prediction of O.J. being a top 6 pick could be wrong, but there is no way I'd concede that O.J. will not be a top 9 pick - that is just bonkers! Yes, every expert should be given a margin of error, but this isn't misevaluating a player, this is flat out IGNORANCE.
So why am I so confident that O.J. will be a top 9 pick guaranteed? Because, as I've been saying for months, his game is far more suited for NBA ball. O.J. thrives in isolation because he can get his shot off 99% of the time, has an excellent floater off the dribble (very hard to defend), NBA range, strong handles, and just an overall polished game from 17 feet and in. The college game actually works against his style of play, because teams are able to run zone defenses leaning towards his side of the court or have one player front him. NBA is much more wide open because the level of play from fellow teammates is higher; you never see those gimmicky defenses run in the NBA for more than a handful of sequences, if that. When you add the fact that O.J. has carried himself well on-and-off the court shaking off the "me-first" tag and is underrated defensively, it's simple math.
From LATimes.com:
"He's got an upside because he's so athletic," the executive said. "But I just don't know where he contributes in the NBA game besides catching a lob once in a while and running the floor. He's like a mini-Shawn Marion without the toughness. I think he needs to stay" in college.
As I said in a post last month, Davon is crazy if he enters the draft this year and will get many more opinions from NBA execs like the one above. Just look at Marcus Williams of Arizona last year as an example, the kid was far more offensively polished than Davon, although he was a headcase and never played D, and was drafted as the 3rd pick in the 2nd round. He was waived by the Spurs twice a few months into the season and is now playing full-time in the NBDL. Now would you rather be honing your game in the NBDL or in college with nearly all your expenses covered and a chance at a college degree? Davon, don't make the dumb mistake of jumping too early.
From ESPN.com (no direct link):
USC guard O.J. Mayo was ranked No. 1 on our Big Board in July. Some of that had to do with hype, but most of it had to do with Mayo’s game. He already had the body and athleticism of an NBA player. He was an excellent scorer and scouts said they thought he would be a full-time point guard in the pros.
Mayo has proved he has the ability to score at USC. But the point guard thing hasn’t materialized. He’s looked fairly one-dimensional this season — his assist and rebound totals are underwhelming. Some of that isn’t Mayo’s fault as he’s asked to play off the ball and carry the team on offense. But scouts looking for something more than a shoot-first 2-guard have been disappointed. Some are calling Mayo the next Jerry Stackhouse — a guy who never met a shot he didn’t like or a defensive set he did like.
Scouts are being too critical in my mind. The backlash against Mayo has been too severe given his numbers. As a freshman, he’s averaging more than 20 points per game in one of the toughest conferences in college basketball and shooting a respectable percentage from the field. His assist-to-turnover ratio isn’t pretty & but he’s been asked to do a lot.
The fact that he played Derrick Rose to a draw and outplayed Arizona’s Jerryd Bayless stands out. But the truth is that if scouts are skeptical, then he’s got to prove himself during workouts.
Right now he’s ranked No. 9 on our draft board. But I think teams like the Knicks and Clippers will take a long look at him earlier in the draft.
No. 9 on ESPN's draft board? The last time I let ESPN influence my evaluation of a player I picked Chris Lofton over Michael Beasley (my gut instinct) as an All-American. Yes, CHRIS FRICKIN LOFTON! I should print out every single post on this blog, spit on each page, and burn it up in flames for that decision. To my defense, if I remember correctly, I wrote that I hated his game and was reluctant to pick him, but that ESPN made a good point about Lofton thriving in a well-balanced UT squad.
To boast a bit and help my bruised ego, before the season began, I predicted O.J. would average 21 pts, 5 boards, and 3 assists per game this season; his current stats are 21.6 pts, 4.4 boards, and 3.0 assists per game. Thank you, thank you. But going back to my original point, I am going to go with my gut instincts this time and predict that O.J. will be a top 6 pick. I don't even need to know the draft order, when NBA execs see how well O.J.'s game will translate to the NBA, his year of maturity on/off court, and his improved defensive skills, his stock will rise. The truth is, O.J.'s game from 17 feet and in is more polished than Eric Gordon's. To EJ's (Gordon) defense, he does finish better at the rim, but that doesn't have nearly the same weight. As for Bayless, I don't think he has the same upside as Mayo or Gordon (Rose is apples to oranges) and it will show come work-out time. Whether I'm right or wrong, I will revisit this post come draft time. I just want redemption for CHRIS FRICKIN LOFTON! We shall see...
From LATimes.com:
Jefferson's steadiness on the court has elevated him to a late first-round selection in the NBA draft in the estimation of one league executive. A source close to Jefferson said he intended to declare for the draft after this season.
This was from Ben Bolch's article a few days ago. When I read the highlighted sentence above, it had me shaking my head and nearly forgetting the preceding story of Davon's development in maturity and character. It was an indication to me that Davon had matured, but not a great deal, and if the source is true, will make yet another false step in a long line of bad decisions.
I realize this post has the make-up of being inflammatory, but let me be clear, this isn't a knock against Davon as a person, rather a knock against his potential decision. I'll say it outright: Davon is NOT ready for the NBA. Not only is he not mentally prepared for the pro stage, but his game is too flawed to translate over. When you add up the facts that he is a tweener (not a true 3 or 4), needs to face up to shoot (i.e. can't shoot off dribble), doesn't have a secure handle, can't blow by defenders with his quickness, and doesn't have post-up moves, it pretty much equals a demotion to the NBDL, 2nd year cut, or bench warmer status for a significant portion of his development years.
I was pleasantly surprised that Davon had a 2.75 gpa in his first semester, but I don't think it will have any weight in his decision to jump to the NBA. I'd be willing to bet that he'll at least test the waters and will jump if the words "1st" and "round" are used together - even if they are uttered by fallacious agents. Actually, he'd probably jump if he was a early 2nd round lock. Davon would be best served to come back to SC for at least another year to work on his game, but I honestly won't count on it...
Nick Young, Washington Wizards - 1st Rd. 16th Pick
- I personally think Washington will be a great fit for Nick. I've always felt that Nick needed at least a year of development before stepping into a main role. If Nick was picked up by Charlotte, I think his development would have been stunted due to greater and more immediate expectations. Playing under Gilbert Arenas will do wonders in helping Nick hone the weak parts of his game such as moving without the ball and maintaining a high-level of competitiveness the entire game. Also, like most draftees, Nick needs to improve defensively. I think Nick has a productive (not superstar) NBA career.
Gabe Pruitt, Boston Celtics - 2nd Rd. 2nd Pick
- I think Gabe will have a tougher time at Boston. I still can't believe Jay Bilas actually said that SC tried to hide Gabe defensively. Uh, Gabe was consistently our best defender and he locked down on players like Patrick Beverley (4/13 shooting), D.J. Augustin (1/8 shooting), and Ty Lawson (2/10 shooting) during the tournament - but of course I digress! My concern for Gabe comes in the fact that he will be expected to play the pure point role behind Rondo. Gabe has always been a shooter first guard not a set up the offense type guard. I'm not sure he can thrive dribbling up court and throwing the ball to guys like Ray, Pierce, or Jefferson. Of course if we can take anything away from Gabe's career at SC, it was his excellent ability to adapt, so I'm not all that concerned.
