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Updated NBA Draft Thoughts

Still hard to say whether O.J. will enter the draft because it seems like he's factoring in his college experience heavily into the decision.  As for his draft stock, back when Chad Ford had O.J. at #9 on his draft board, I ranted and said he was a top 6 lock.  I also mentioned in the same post that O.J. is a better prospect than Eric Gordon, due to his polished mid-range game, and Jerryd Bayless, due to his higher ceiling.  Well, guess where Chad Ford has O.J. now?  Yup, he has him at #4 with Bayless dropping to #6 and Gordon dropping even further to #8; both players were ranked higher than O.J. at the time I posted my prediction.  The same goes for NBADraft.net. 

So where's my cookie?

With the tournament/season over, there is no doubt that Derrick Rose has seen his stock rise more than anyone.  Yes, if his stock rises it'll only be one place from #2 to #1, but before the tournament everyone had Michael Beasley as the #1 lock; now it seems like Rose might have a solid shot at going #1 overall.  I've seen a lot of comparisons made of Rose, some on-point and others completely off-point, but he reminds me of Stephon Marbury with a more pure point guard mind and minus the character issues.  They both have amazing first steps, elite leaping ability, ability to take over games single-handedly, and that innate understanding of using angles to create space for teammates.  The kid is going to be a franchise player real soon.

Taj and Davon

As for Taj and Davon, my thoughts haven't really changed about their prospects.  I think Taj would be dumb to not declare for the draft and at least familiarize himself with the process because he would commit draft suicide by staying his senior year due to his age.  Might as well use that free declare pass while you have it.  This year's draft looks a little too strong for him to declare since players like Darrell Arthur, Donte Greene, Joey Dorsey, J.J. Hickson, etc. could possibly push him into the mid-to-late 2nd round.  Taj needs to come back and understand that he will never be a back-to-the-basket player and start developing his jumper from beyond the baseline.  He wasted nearly the entire OOC conference schedule trying to play with his back to the basket and really hurt his progression during the season; I never fully bought the injured ankle causing him to struggle argument.  He needs to accept his role as a rebounding/defensive specialist and be even more efficient offensively by mixing up outside mid-range jumpers with quick moves to the basket and supplementing them with a lot of fakes and up-and-under moves.  Taj will never be physically dominating due to his natural skinny frame and therefore he needs to leverage his wingspan and quickness.  Less is more for Taj. 

Finally, I've made it clear before that Davon has absolutely no business being in this year's draft.  When players like J.R. Giddens are questionable to be early 2nd round locks, Davon is either going to barely be drafted or not drafted at all.  He's the perfect example of a player needing another year in college.  Davon's potential is not high enough to warrant a major gamble from a team and athletic 3's are a dime a dozen.  Davon needs to polish up his game overall and improve defensively before entering the draft.  The fact is, he'd get eaten up by most 3's in the league right now.  Hopefully he makes the right move and comes back for his sophomore season. 

Grading The 2007 Hoops Class

From Rivals.com:

2. USC

Star of the class: O.J. Mayo. After a much bally-hooed high school career that was played under the national microscope, the former five-star prospect moved from a small pond in Huntington, West Virginia to the bright lights of Los Angeles. He helped the Trojans return to the NCAA tournament and raised the program's reputation on a national level. Mayo was a first-team All-Pac-10 performer after scoring 20.7 points per game. His next move is likely to the NBA.

Steal of the class: Davon Jefferson. His road to college took a little longer than he may have wanted, the athletic forward went to work when he finally made it. The former prep schooler's crowning moment this season came in a 72-63 win over UCLA, where he scored 25 points and grabbed nine rebounds. With Mayo likely leaving for the NBA next season, don't be surprised to see Jefferson have an all-conference type of year next year.

In hindsight: Mayo did what everyone thought he would do, score the ball, raise the profile of the team and make an impact right away. Jefferson should come into his own even more as a sophomore. Outside of Mayo, Jefferson and Angelo Johnson, the other two signees Marcus Simmons and Mamadou Diarra didn't factor too much into the big picture mostly to injury. Johnson should factor more into the plans next season and beyond. He started 11 games and was third on the team in assists.

Grade: A-

Very fair grade for a solid class.  The future will look as bright as can be if O.J. and Davon return next season, but even if they depart, the rest of the class should contribute for many years to come.  Marcus Simmons is a player that will continue to develop and become a Kyle Weaver type of player.  Mamadou Diarra certainly has the skill-set to become an impact big man.  Finally, Angelo stepped it up when needed and looks like a player that can at the very least provide quality minutes at the PG spot.

Source Says Davon Will Return For Sophomore Season

From LATimes.com:

A source close to USC freshman Davon Jefferson emphatically said Thursday that the 6-foot-8 forward would return for his sophomore season instead of declaring for the NBA draft.

"He is not declaring for the draft," said the source, who spoke on condition of anonymity. "He has not hired an agent nor will he hire an agent. He looks forward to going back to USC and is 100% committed to the team."

Like I said in my awards banquet post, I would take these types of reports with a BIG grain of salt.  Even though I respect Ben and read his reports regularly, I find it funny that he's reported one source saying that Davon intends to head to the NBA and now has another source saying he's staying 100%.  Unless this is an update of the first source, what's the point of having sources when you get nowhere closer to the truth?  On the grounds of anonymity, I guess everyone can have sources if they cancel each other out.  If Davon doesn't at least test the waters, I will be shocked.

One NBA Exec's Opinion of Davon's Draft Stock

From LATimes.com:

"He's got an upside because he's so athletic," the executive said. "But I just don't know where he contributes in the NBA game besides catching a lob once in a while and running the floor. He's like a mini-Shawn Marion without the toughness. I think he needs to stay" in college.

As I said in a post last month, Davon is crazy if he enters the draft this year and will get many more opinions from NBA execs like the one above.  Just look at Marcus Williams of Arizona last year as an example, the kid was far more offensively polished than Davon, although he was a headcase and never played D, and was drafted as the 3rd pick in the 2nd round.  He was waived by the Spurs twice a few months into the season and is now playing full-time in the NBDL.  Now would you rather be honing your game in the NBDL or in college with nearly all your expenses covered and a chance at a college degree?  Davon, don't make the dumb mistake of jumping too early. 

O.J. Mayo to Davon Jefferson - SLAAAAM DUNK!

Awesome moment from yesterday's game.  Definitely one of the highlight plays of the year.  O.J.'s ridiculous reverse lay-up was the #3 play on Sportcenter's Top 10.

H/T to AllThingsTrojan for the video link. 

Davon Jefferson Headed to the NBA?

From LATimes.com:

Jefferson's steadiness on the court has elevated him to a late first-round selection in the NBA draft in the estimation of one league executive. A source close to Jefferson said he intended to declare for the draft after this season.

This was from Ben Bolch's article a few days ago.  When I read the highlighted sentence above, it had me shaking my head and nearly forgetting the preceding story of Davon's development in maturity and character.  It was an indication to me that Davon had matured, but not a great deal, and if the source is true, will make yet another false step in a long line of bad decisions. 

I realize this post has the make-up of being inflammatory, but let me be clear, this isn't a knock against Davon as a person, rather a knock against his potential decision.  I'll say it outright:  Davon is NOT ready for the NBA.  Not only is he not mentally prepared for the pro stage, but his game is too flawed to translate over.  When you add up the facts that he is a tweener (not a true 3 or 4), needs to face up to shoot (i.e. can't shoot off dribble), doesn't have a secure handle, can't blow by defenders with his quickness, and doesn't have post-up moves, it pretty much equals a demotion to the NBDL, 2nd year cut, or bench warmer status for a significant portion of his development years. 

I was pleasantly surprised that Davon had a 2.75 gpa in his first semester, but I don't think it will have any weight in his decision to jump to the NBA.  I'd be willing to bet that he'll at least test the waters and will jump if the words "1st" and "round" are used together - even if they are uttered by fallacious agents.  Actually, he'd probably jump if he was a early 2nd round lock.  Davon would be best served to come back to SC for at least another year to work on his game, but I honestly won't count on it...

Davon Showing No Love for the Bruins

Didn't see this upset coming.  I'm proud of the guys and their inspired play today.  This win was good for both teams:  SC now has the momentum and signature win to get back on track and UCLA has their big dose of humility.  With the upcoming Oregon trip, we have a shot to be in the upper-half of the conference by the end of next week.  We can't take either team lightly and will have to come out with the same focus and resilience we showed today.  One thing is for sure, this team looks a lot more united than a week before.  Here's a nice quote from Luke Winn's write-up of the game:

On Feb. 8, 2007, the day after USC lost at Pauley last season, Mayo -- then still in high school in Huntington, W.V. -- phoned a few of the Trojans players, including Hackett's son, Daniel, and gave them a message for the coaching staff: Don't worry about it. We're going to get them there next year.

And that we did.  I'm sure the Bruins will come back a lot more focused in our meeting at the Galen Center.  But until then, we have the bragging rights so I'm going to enjoy this one.  Also, here's the video of Davon banging on K-Love, adding some serious insult to injury, and the game highlights. 

Anaheim Classic Review

Final Scores:  Game #1 - USC 60, San Diego 50, Game #2 - USC 57, Miami (OH) 53, Game #3 - USC 70, #18 Southern Illinois 45
Current Record:  5-1
Current Ranking:  #22 (AP), #24 (ESPN/USA Today)
Next Up:  Oklahoma - 11/29 (Thurs.)

SC took home the trophy in the Anaheim Classic, here's the positives/negatives from all three games:

Positives

• The biggest surprise of the tournament was the play of Davon Jefferson.  Going into the tournament, Coach Floyd made it clear he wasn't going to give Davon minutes that he hadn't earned in practice, so it wasn't clear how much we'd see DJ in the tournament.  Against USD, we saw Davon come off the bench and play 19 minutes, scoring 5 points and adding 3 rebounds; against Miami (OH) it was more of the same, 17 minutes for 7 points and 2 rebounds.  It wasn't until last night's game that we saw what all the fuss was about; Davon again came off the bench along with O.J. and Taj and proceeded to throw down high-flying dunks and show tough moves driving to the basket.  He finished with 20 points and 5 boards in 23 minutes of play, and finally showed why he was deemed a "straight to the NBA" prospect in HS (before the mandatory 1-year rule).  I mused before the tournament that I hoped DJ would get minutes to prepare him for the big 3, so it's a big relief for me to see DJ ready to go against some big name programs. 

• The script was flipped last night and it was SC playing the suffocating defense and forcing SIU to shoot 32.7% from the field. I thought Coach Floyd called a brilliant gameplan keeping Daniel Hackett at arm's length from Randal Falker the entire game and baiting SIU shooters to shoot.  It was the same gameplan used on Tyler Hansbrough in the tournament last season that kept him at 5 points on 1-6 shooting; thankfully SIU didn't have a ridiculously athletic player like Brandan Wright to make up the difference.  The defensive performance last night is the reason why I'm not worried about the lack of size in the front court in a conference filled with talented big men.  We make up for our lack in size with athletic players that can play multiple positions.  Of course there'll be a game like Stanford last year where things don't click and the big men dominate, but this team is as flexible as they come and can adapt to various types of teams.  In the 3 games we played, our opponents shot 32.8%, 42.6%, and 32.7% respectively.  That's very impressive. 

USC vs. USD Game Preview

USC vs. USD - Game Preview

When:  Thursday, Nov. 22 @ 9:00 PM (PST)
Where:  The Arena at the Anaheim Convention Center (Anaheim, CA)
Watch:  ESPN2

USD is coming off a 5 point loss at home to their rival San Diego State and are currently 2-2 overall.  The Toreros (matadors) are led by Junior forward, Gyno Pomare (6'7, 220), and Junior guard, Brandon Johnson (6'0, 195).  Gyno is the player to look out for, he plays a physical style of ball offensively/defensively and leads the team in points and rebounds.  USD only has two scorers that average over 10 pts, so the game plan will likely center around getting the ball out of Gyno's hands and forcing the other starting 4 to pick up the slack. Four of the 5 starters returned from last season and the team is led by long-time Gonzaga assistant, Bill Grier, so you can expect a well-coached squad.

On the Trojans side, we've built some momentum coming off victories against the Citadel and South Carolina.  We currently have 4 players averaging over 10 points and 2 over 20, so you have to like the balance in scoring.  You can feel the team hitting their stride and you have to believe with a nationally televised game, they will come out with a lot of intensity.  Coach Floyd might go with the guard-oriented line-up from last week to start the game, but if I had to guess, I think Kasey will replace Angelo to take pressure off of Taj defensively and on the boards.  Earlier in the week, Coach Floyd was quoted saying he doesn't want to play Davon yet because he's still behind in practices and doesn't want to give "entitlement minutes" to a player that hasn't earned it, so we might have to wait till after the tournament to see the debut of the fab freshman.  Personally, I'd like to see him get 10-15 minutes per game this week to prepare him for the upcoming monster 3 of Oklahoma, Kansas, and Memphis.  It's against those teams that you'd expect to see foul trouble early and it would be a waste to see such a talented player like Davon sit on the bench or come into the game with no experience.  But going back to the game at hand, I think USD will keep the game competitive, but won't ever truly threaten to pull off the upset. 

Prediction:  W by 12+

USC Lost to CSUF in Exhibition Game

From LATimes.com:

The Trojans could have used Gibson and Simmons against the Titans, who "whipped us and defeated us and ran their offense better than we did," according to USC Coach Tim Floyd. "They just exposed who we really are right now without some of our guys out here and a lot of young guys out there playing."

The Trojans watched film of the scrimmage for two hours Monday in hopes they could avoid making the same mistakes Saturday in their regular-season opener against Mercer at the Galen Center.

Before you panic, realize that we were playing without Taj (played 3 minutes), Marcus, and Daniel and with Davon injured (won't be 100% against Mercer).  Last year we were blown out by Air Force in a exhibition game and ended up in the Sweet 16.  On a brighter note, OJ is getting done in the classroom:

While O.J. Mayo's debut on the court is still four days away, the freshman guard is off to a solid start in the classroom.

After attaining a B-plus in two summer school classes, Mayo said he was on pace to become a Pacific 10 Conference honor roll student based on his first-semester midterm grades.

"When you're at the college level, it's about being a student first and athlete second," Mayo said, "and it's kind of hard to manage both of them if you think you're coming to college just to be a basketball player."

It seemed not too long ago everyone was saying that O.J. would be an uncontrollable miscreant here at SC and wouldn't bother going to class since he was one and done and could care less.  For the second day in a row, where are the haters now?